Newtown expected to have 32% more 80+ year-olds by 2033

By Elgan Hearn, Local Democracy Reporter

More details will be given to Powys councillors on potential new developments at the council’s care homes to cater for the county’s aging population.

At a meeting of Powys County Council’s Health and Care scrutiny committee on this week, councillors were given an update on the new 15-year care homes contract that was signed on June 1 with Shaw Healthcare, covering their 12 older people’s care homes and one reablement facility.

But with the ink still wet on the contract, Committee Chair Cllr Amanda Jenner (Conservative) believed it was difficult for the committee to “measure anything” and provide scrutiny on the topic.

She asked Social Services chiefs to explain what would “happen next” now that the contract process has been completed.

Head of Adult Services Sharon Frewin said that work was being done to “refresh” the “demand assumptions” of how many people are expected to need to live in care homes in the future.

She said: “Just to make sure the figures are correct and the demand in each area is still relatively the same and that will then lead into progressing work to identify potential early sites and business case work.”

Earlier in the meeting, councillors had had been shown a graphic which outlines a dramatic growth in the number of people in Powys who will be aged 80 and over by 2033.

The prediction is that by 2033 there will be a 32 per cent increase in 80- to 89-year-olds and a 29 per cent increase in over 90-year-olds.

There will also be a 21% drop in those aged 50 to 59 in the county and 8% less in the 30 to 39 age range.

Cabinet Member for Adult Services, Cllr Pete Roberts (Liberal Democrat – Llandrindod South), said: “This is one of the most important pieces of work the council will be looking at not just in this administration but on to the next council term.

“We’ve seen the demographic changes that are going to impact on the council and that’s going to manifest itself in a much greater demand for nursing care both from older adults and sports related early onset dementia.

“This is going to be the answer to enabling people to still live within the county.

“And the council to manage its costs and not be put not the position of having to export people over the border into England or our neighbouring Welsh counties, not just over the next two or three years but over the next 10 to 15 years.

“It’s a big important piece of work and that’s why the contract with Shaw is such a long term one which will span multiple administrations.”

Cllr Jenner said: “It will be interesting to see how that develops.”

A further update is expected to come before the committee in the autumn.